Long range Transportation Forecasting

Abstract and project information last updated: 1 March 2011. Project updates are dated below.

AUTC
Project
Number
309042
Principal
Investigator
Ming Lee (UAF)
mlee91@alaska.edu
Funding
Agency

US Department of Transportation (RITA)

UAF College of Engineering & Mines

Project
Budget
100000
Start
Date
1 August 2009
Estimated
End Date
31 July 2011

Abstract

In the last few years, increasing scientific evidence supports the hypothesis that greenhouse gas emissions contribute to changes in the earth’s climate, with many detrimental effects already taking place. There is developing consensus among the public and elected officials about the need for action to reduce GHG. This project will develop methodologies to forecast long-range multi-modal travel demand in urban areas that can reflect the effectiveness of strategies and policies designed to reduce vehicular-source GHG emissions. The developed methodologies will be tested with the two existing Metropolitan Planning Organization models available in Alaska: Anchorage Metropolitan Area Transportation Solutions and the Fairbanks Metropolitan Area Transportation System. In the U.S., a major source of GHG emissions is carbon dioxide emissions from personal automobiles. The amount of CO2 emissions from mobile sources is tied directly to the amount of fuel consumed, which is then tied to the total vehicle miles traveled. In devising effective multi-modal transportation policies and financial programs for VMT reduction (i.e., reduction in CO2 emissions) in a metropolitan area, a travel-demand forecasting model with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution is needed to generate traffic forecasts. The forecasts will be used as inputs for air quality models such as the EPA’s MOBILE6 or MOVES. MOVES, which will replace MOBILE6 as the next-generation mobile source emission model, requires traffic volume forecasts with spatial and temporal details that exceed what the current travel-demand models can produce.

Final Report

Final Report: Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska
26 Mar 2012

Long Range Transportation Forecasting
MacArthur, John; Mote, Philip; Ideker, Jason; Figliozzi, Miguel, and Ming Lee.
Climate-Change-Asses.Surface-Trans.-in-PNW-AK.pdf

Related Project Activity

26 March 2012

Final Report: Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

by Joel Bailey

Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska