Research and Products (click on each project title for in-depth information)

Cross-Regional Dialogue: Climate Change, Water Impacts and Indigenous People.
With global temperatures on the rise, the impact of drought on water supplies and ecosystems can only be expected to increase in the coming years. Being prepared by better understanding drought planning innovations and the array of monitoring and forecasting resources may help reduce vulnerabilities and avert disasters. This project, supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), aims to use modern communication technologies to open a dialogue among tribal and indigenous decisionmakers and resource managers from Alaska, the US Southwest, and the Pacific Islands as well as climate scientists from these regions.

Alaska Climate Data Downscaling Workshop
This inaugural event of the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center created a forum for scientists and managers in Alaska to explore state-of-the-science techniques and methodologies for downscaling climate data; understand current science capacities applicable to Alaska; learn about new initiatives and future capacity in Alaska; and discuss science and management relevant needs for the State of Alaska. The workshop goal was to identify a science action plan that provides capacity building recommendations and proposes a research agenda to address State needs. A white paper report addressing Alaska's downscaling capacities and needs is in progress.

Decision-Making for At Risk Communities in a Changing Climate
Many communities in Alaska are faced with multiple threats to infrastructure and quality of life due, in part, to projected changes in precipitation, temperature, and related incidences of flooding and erosion. We have developed a guide with a matrix approach to communities at risk so that decision-makers are well informed on planning related to climate change and uncertainty, risk management, and relocation. The guide includes steps from planning through execution, perspectives on community engagement, partial relocation, site development costs, and timing. Sustainability recommendations focus on defining sustainability, future energy planning, planning for a changing cost of living, and available transportation corridors.

Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure at Risk to Climate Change
Scientists expect Alaska's climate to get warmer over time—and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are preliminary estimates of how much climate warming could increase the future costs for roads, harbors, schools, the power grid, sewer systems, and all the other public infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning. This project provides background about recent climate change in Alaska and provides preliminary estimates of future infrastructure costs, using data from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
ACCAP PhD student Eunkyoung Hong's dissertation focuses on the estimation of additional costs caused by climate change in the field of public infrastructure. Also, through the regulatory (mitigation) scenario, this study will anticipate the avoidable costs as well.

Evaluation of Fire Forecast Products to Enhance U.S. Drought Preparedness and Response
As the scientific community clarifies its understanding of how climate and wildfire interact, an increasing amount of effort and resources are being spent to deliver this science to the US wildfire community. One model that has shown great promise consists of the National Seasonal Assessment workshops (NSAW, click here for the 2009 report) and the Significant Fire Potential Outlooks produced during these annual workshops and monthly conference calls. However, it is not well documented who uses these outlooks, how they use them, or if the outlooks provide any economic benefit. This cross-RISA (CLIMAS, CAP, ACCAP) drought project will assess the impact the NSAW seasonal and monthly fire outlooks have on decision makers across the agencies who collaborate to plan for and manage wildfires in the Western U.S. This project will evaluate who is using these outlooks and how they are being used in order to: 1) provide immediate (next year) input into the production and distribution of these products and 2) begin to build a seasonal fire decision analysis framework to help identify where additional resources are most efficiently spent by better understanding and quantifying uncertainties in current decision making.

Improving Seasonal Fire Predictions and Information Services in Alaska for Regional and National Fire Resource Planning
Predictive capacity for Alaska fire falls behind what is available in the lower 48 states. Increases in wildfire frequency, severity, duration, and total area burned are among the most significant expected ecological effects of climate warming. Two of the three most extensive wildfire seasons in Alaska’s 50-year record occurred in 2004 and 2005 and 60% of the largest fire years have occurred since 1990 (Kasischke et al. 2006). Designed in close collaboration with fire managers from a range of state and federal agencies participating in the Alaska WildlandFire Coordination Group, this project takes advantage of the strong weather/fire link in Alaska to produce estimates for the severity of the 2009 and 2010 fire seasons. In collaboration with CLIMAS, we are presently utilizing these results to draft a web-based decision-support tool that will help Alaska fire mangers adapt to a changing climate in their suppression and natural resource planning.